{"id":1857,"date":"2026-03-16T19:11:39","date_gmt":"2026-03-16T18:11:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/canis-conseil.fr\/?p=1857"},"modified":"2026-03-16T19:13:31","modified_gmt":"2026-03-16T18:13:31","slug":"leconomie-mondiale-est-elle-entree-dans-une-ere-de-chocs-permanents","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/canis-conseil.fr\/index.php\/2026\/03\/16\/leconomie-mondiale-est-elle-entree-dans-une-ere-de-chocs-permanents\/","title":{"rendered":"\ud83c\udf0d L&#8217;\u00e9conomie mondiale est-elle entr\u00e9e dans une \u00e8re de &#8220;chocs permanents&#8221; ?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size\">Le conflit en Iran et les tensions autour du d\u00e9troit d\u2019Ormuz ne sont pas seulement un choc p\u00e9trolier : ils r\u00e9v\u00e8lent une vuln\u00e9rabilit\u00e9 structurelle des cha\u00eenes de valeur et questionnent la capacit\u00e9 des organisations \u00e0 absorber un choc syst\u00e9mique suppl\u00e9mentaire.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center has-medium-font-size\"><em>\u00ab L\u2019incertitude est d\u00e9sormais la nouvelle norme \u00bb<\/em> \u2014 Kristalina Georgieva, Managing Director au FMI<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size\">\ud835\udddc\ud835\uddfa\ud835\uddfd\ud835\uddee\ud835\uddf0\ud835\ude01\ud835\ude00 \ud835\uddfc\ud835\uddfd\ud835\uddf2\u0341\ud835\uddff\ud835\uddee\ud835\ude01\ud835\uddf6\ud835\uddfc\ud835\uddfb\ud835\uddfb\ud835\uddf2\ud835\uddf9\ud835\ude00 \ud835\uddee \ud835\ude00\ud835\ude02\ud835\uddff\ud835\ude03\ud835\uddf2\ud835\uddf6\ud835\uddf9\ud835\uddf9\ud835\uddf2\ud835\uddff \ud835\uddf6\ud835\uddfa\ud835\uddfa\ud835\uddf2\u0341\ud835\uddf1\ud835\uddf6\ud835\uddee\ud835\ude01\ud835\uddf2\ud835\uddfa\ud835\uddf2\ud835\uddfb\ud835\ude01<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size\">Pour les ETI et PME fran\u00e7aises, des ruptures lointaines deviennent des risques strat\u00e9giques locaux.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li class=\"has-medium-font-size\">\ud835\uddd4\ud835\uddf9\ud835\ude02\ud835\uddfa\ud835\uddf6\ud835\uddfb\ud835\uddf6\ud835\ude02\ud835\uddfa \u2014 Prix d\u00e9j\u00e0 en hausse ; les fonderies du Golfe (14,5 % des exportations) n\u2019ont que 3\u20134 semaines de stocks d\u2019alumine, exposant l\u2019automobile, le BTP et l\u2019emballage \u00e0 des ruptures et \u00e0 une pression sur les marges.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"has-medium-font-size\">\ud835\uddd8\ud835\uddfb\ud835\uddf4\ud835\uddff\ud835\uddee\ud835\uddf6\ud835\ude00 \ud835\uddf2\ud835\ude01 \ud835\uddfd\ud835\uddf9\ud835\uddee\ud835\ude00\ud835\ude01\ud835\uddf6\ud835\uddfe\ud835\ude02\ud835\uddf2\ud835\ude00 \u2014 Environ 33 % des engrais et 15 % du poly\u00e9thyl\u00e8ne transitent par Ormuz : une perturbation prolong\u00e9e cr\u00e9e un risque d\u2019inflation en cascade pour l\u2019agroalimentaire et l\u2019industrie chimique.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"has-medium-font-size\">\ud835\udddf\ud835\uddfc\ud835\uddf4\ud835\uddf6\ud835\ude00\ud835\ude01\ud835\uddf6\ud835\uddfe\ud835\ude02\ud835\uddf2 \ud835\uddf2\ud835\ude01 \ud835\uddf2\u2011\ud835\uddf0\ud835\uddfc\ud835\uddfa\ud835\uddfa\ud835\uddf2\ud835\uddff\ud835\uddf0\ud835\uddf2 \u2014 Flux tendus mis \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9preuve : retards d\u00e9j\u00e0 annonc\u00e9s (jusqu\u2019\u00e0 45 jours pour certains articles) et hausse des co\u00fbts de fret, avec des effets directs sur le service client et le fonds de roulement.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"has-medium-font-size\">\ud835\udde0\ud835\uddee\ud835\uddff\ud835\uddf0\ud835\uddf5\ud835\uddf2\u0341\ud835\ude00 \ud835\uddf2\ud835\ude01 \ud835\ude01\ud835\uddff\ud835\uddf2\u0341\ud835\ude00\ud835\uddfc\ud835\uddff\ud835\uddf2\ud835\uddff\ud835\uddf6\ud835\uddf2 \u2014 Volatilit\u00e9 boursi\u00e8re et hausse des prix mati\u00e8res premi\u00e8res compressent les marges et augmentent le besoin de liquidit\u00e9s pour absorber les chocs.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size\">\ud835\uddd6\ud835\uddf2 \ud835\uddfe\ud835\ude02\ud835\uddf2 \ud835\uddf9\ud835\uddf2\ud835\ude00 \ud835\uddee\ud835\uddf1\ud835\uddfa\ud835\uddf6\ud835\uddfb\ud835\uddf6\ud835\ude00\ud835\ude01\ud835\uddff\ud835\uddee\ud835\ude01\ud835\uddf2\ud835\ude02\ud835\uddff\ud835\ude00 \ud835\uddf2\ud835\ude01 \ud835\uddf1\ud835\uddf6\ud835\uddff\ud835\uddf6\ud835\uddf4\ud835\uddf2\ud835\uddee\ud835\uddfb\ud835\ude01\ud835\ude00 \ud835\uddf1\ud835\uddfc\ud835\uddf6\ud835\ude03\ud835\uddf2\ud835\uddfb\ud835\ude01 \ud835\uddfd\ud835\uddff\ud835\uddf6\ud835\uddfc\ud835\uddff\ud835\uddf6\ud835\ude00\ud835\uddf2\ud835\uddff<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size\">Les mod\u00e8les construits sur l\u2019hypoth\u00e8se de stabilit\u00e9 structurelle ne sont plus adapt\u00e9s. La r\u00e9silience devient un pilier strat\u00e9gique, au m\u00eame titre que la performance ou l\u2019innovation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li class=\"has-medium-font-size\">\ud835\uddd6\ud835\uddee\ud835\uddff\ud835\ude01\ud835\uddfc\ud835\uddf4\ud835\uddff\ud835\uddee\ud835\uddfd\ud835\uddf5\ud835\uddf6\ud835\uddf2\ud835\uddff \ud835\uddf9\ud835\uddf2\ud835\ude00 \ud835\uddf1\ud835\uddf2\u0341\ud835\uddfd\ud835\uddf2\ud835\uddfb\ud835\uddf1\ud835\uddee\ud835\uddfb\ud835\uddf0\ud835\uddf2\ud835\ude00 \ud835\uddf0\ud835\uddff\ud835\uddf6\ud835\ude01\ud835\uddf6\ud835\uddfe\ud835\ude02\ud835\uddf2\ud835\ude00 \u2014 identifier les mati\u00e8res premi\u00e8res, fournisseurs et corridors logistiques dont l\u2019interruption mettrait l\u2019entreprise en p\u00e9ril.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"has-medium-font-size\">\ud835\udde7\ud835\uddf2\ud835\ude00\ud835\ude01\ud835\uddf2\ud835\uddff \ud835\uddf1\ud835\uddf2\ud835\ude00 \ud835\ude00\ud835\uddf0\ud835\uddf2\u0341\ud835\uddfb\ud835\uddee\ud835\uddff\ud835\uddf6\ud835\uddfc\ud835\ude00 \ud835\uddf1\ud835\uddf2 \ud835\uddff\ud835\ude02\ud835\uddfd\ud835\ude01\ud835\ude02\ud835\uddff\ud835\uddf2 \u2014 stress tests op\u00e9rationnels et financiers sur 4\u201312 semaines pour mesurer l\u2019impact sur production, tr\u00e9sorerie et livraison.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"has-medium-font-size\">\ud835\uddd7\ud835\uddf6\ud835\ude03\ud835\uddf2\ud835\uddff\ud835\ude00\ud835\uddf6\ud835\uddf3\ud835\uddf6\ud835\uddf2\ud835\uddff \ud835\uddf2\ud835\ude01 \ud835\ude00\ud835\uddf2\u0341\ud835\uddf0\ud835\ude02\ud835\uddff\ud835\uddf6\ud835\ude00\ud835\uddf2\ud835\uddff \ud835\uddf9\ud835\uddf2\ud835\ude00 \ud835\uddee\ud835\uddfd\ud835\uddfd\ud835\uddff\ud835\uddfc\ud835\ude03\ud835\uddf6\ud835\ude00\ud835\uddf6\ud835\uddfc\ud835\uddfb\ud835\uddfb\ud835\uddf2\ud835\uddfa\ud835\uddf2\ud835\uddfb\ud835\ude01\ud835\ude00 \u2014 prioriser fournisseurs alternatifs, stocks strat\u00e9giques cibl\u00e9s et contrats flexibles.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"has-medium-font-size\">\ud835\udde5\ud835\uddf2\ud835\uddfb\ud835\uddf3\ud835\uddfc\ud835\uddff\ud835\uddf0\ud835\uddf2\ud835\uddff \ud835\uddf9\ud835\uddee \ud835\uddf4\ud835\uddfc\ud835\ude02\ud835\ude03\ud835\uddf2\ud835\uddff\ud835\uddfb\ud835\uddee\ud835\uddfb\ud835\uddf0\ud835\uddf2 \ud835\uddf1\ud835\ude02 \ud835\uddff\ud835\uddf6\ud835\ude00\ud835\uddfe\ud835\ude02\ud835\uddf2 \u2014 int\u00e9grer la g\u00e9opolitique dans l\u2019agenda du conseil, d\u00e9finir seuils d\u2019alerte et d\u00e9l\u00e9gations de d\u00e9cision en situation d\u2019urgence.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"has-medium-font-size\">\ud835\udde3\ud835\uddf6\ud835\uddf9\ud835\uddfc\ud835\ude01\ud835\uddf2\ud835\uddff \ud835\uddf9\ud835\uddee \ud835\uddf0\ud835\uddfc\ud835\uddfa\ud835\uddfa\ud835\ude02\ud835\uddfb\ud835\uddf6\ud835\uddf0\ud835\uddee\ud835\ude01\ud835\uddf6\ud835\uddfc\ud835\uddfb \u2014 informer clients et partenaires sur les risques et plans d\u2019att\u00e9nuation pour pr\u00e9server la confiance et limiter l\u2019effet domino commercial.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size\">La diversification des sources et la gouvernance proactive du risque ne sont plus des options : ce sont des imp\u00e9ratifs strat\u00e9giques.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size\">\ud835\udddc\ud835\uddfb\ud835\ude00\ud835\uddf0\ud835\uddff\ud835\uddf6\ud835\uddff\ud835\uddf2 \ud835\uddf9\ud835\uddee \ud835\uddf0\ud835\uddee\ud835\uddff\ud835\ude01\ud835\uddfc\ud835\uddf4\ud835\uddff\ud835\uddee\ud835\uddfd\ud835\uddf5\ud835\uddf6\ud835\uddf2 \ud835\uddf1\ud835\uddf2\ud835\ude00 \ud835\uddf1\ud835\uddf2\u0341\ud835\uddfd\ud835\uddf2\ud835\uddfb\ud835\uddf1\ud835\uddee\ud835\uddfb\ud835\uddf0\ud835\uddf2\ud835\ude00 \ud835\uddee \ud835\uddf9\u2019\ud835\uddfc\ud835\uddff\ud835\uddf1\ud835\uddff\ud835\uddf2 \ud835\uddf1\ud835\ude02 \ud835\uddf7\ud835\uddfc\ud835\ude02\ud835\uddff \ud835\uddf1\ud835\ude02 \ud835\uddd6\ud835\uddd4 \ud835\uddf2\ud835\ude00\ud835\ude01 \ud835\ude02\ud835\uddfb \ud835\uddf9\ud835\uddf2\ud835\ude03\ud835\uddf6\ud835\uddf2\ud835\uddff \ud835\uddf1\u2019\ud835\uddee\ud835\uddf0\ud835\ude01\ud835\uddf6\ud835\uddfc\ud835\uddfb \ud835\uddf6\ud835\uddfa\ud835\uddfa\ud835\uddf2\u0341\ud835\uddf1\ud835\uddf6\ud835\uddee\ud835\ude01.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size\">\u2049\ufe0f Quel levier votre conseil d\u2019administration doit\u2011il activer en priorit\u00e9 cette semaine pour r\u00e9duire l\u2019exposition de votre entreprise ? \ud83d\udcac \ud83d\udc47<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p>Sources :<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.lesechos.fr\/monde\/afrique-moyen-orient\/en-direct-guerre-en-iran-les-principales-informations-de-ce-jeudi-5-mars-2219245\">https:\/\/www.lesechos.fr\/monde\/afrique-moyen-orient\/en-direct-guerre-en-iran-les-principales-informations-de-ce-jeudi-5-mars-2219245<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.lesechos.fr\/finance-marches\/marches-financiers\/guerre-en-iran-le-marche-de-laluminium-destabilise-par-le-blocage-du-detroit-dormuz-2219188\">https:\/\/www.lesechos.fr\/finance-marches\/marches-financiers\/guerre-en-iran-le-marche-de-laluminium-destabilise-par-le-blocage-du-detroit-dormuz-2219188<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.lesechos.fr\/monde\/afrique-moyen-orient\/plastiques-engrais-aluminium-comment-la-guerre-en-iran-bouleverse-le-commerce-mondial-2219237\">https:\/\/www.lesechos.fr\/monde\/afrique-moyen-orient\/plastiques-engrais-aluminium-comment-la-guerre-en-iran-bouleverse-le-commerce-mondial-2219237<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Le conflit en Iran et les tensions autour du d\u00e9troit d\u2019Ormuz ne sont pas seulement un choc p\u00e9trolier : ils r\u00e9v\u00e8lent une vuln\u00e9rabilit\u00e9 structurelle des cha\u00eenes de valeur et questionnent la capacit\u00e9 des organisations \u00e0 absorber un choc syst\u00e9mique suppl\u00e9mentaire. \u00ab L\u2019incertitude est d\u00e9sormais la nouvelle norme \u00bb \u2014 Kristalina Georgieva, Managing Director au FMI &hellip;<\/p>\n<p class=\"read-more\"> <a class=\"\" href=\"https:\/\/canis-conseil.fr\/index.php\/2026\/03\/16\/leconomie-mondiale-est-elle-entree-dans-une-ere-de-chocs-permanents\/\"> <span class=\"screen-reader-text\">\ud83c\udf0d L&#8217;\u00e9conomie mondiale est-elle entr\u00e9e dans une \u00e8re de &#8220;chocs permanents&#8221; ?<\/span> Read More &raquo;<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_uag_custom_page_level_css":"","site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[9,8],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1857","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-gouvernance","category-intelligence-economique"],"uagb_featured_image_src":{"full":false,"thumbnail":false,"medium":false,"medium_large":false,"large":false,"1536x1536":false,"2048x2048":false},"uagb_author_info":{"display_name":"Catherine Delahaye","author_link":"https:\/\/canis-conseil.fr\/index.php\/author\/admin5132\/"},"uagb_comment_info":0,"uagb_excerpt":"Le conflit en Iran et les tensions autour du d\u00e9troit d\u2019Ormuz ne sont pas seulement un choc p\u00e9trolier : ils r\u00e9v\u00e8lent une vuln\u00e9rabilit\u00e9 structurelle des cha\u00eenes de valeur et questionnent la capacit\u00e9 des organisations \u00e0 absorber un choc syst\u00e9mique suppl\u00e9mentaire. \u00ab L\u2019incertitude est d\u00e9sormais la nouvelle norme \u00bb \u2014 Kristalina Georgieva, Managing Director au FMI&hellip;","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/canis-conseil.fr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1857","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/canis-conseil.fr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/canis-conseil.fr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/canis-conseil.fr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/canis-conseil.fr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1857"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/canis-conseil.fr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1857\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1861,"href":"https:\/\/canis-conseil.fr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1857\/revisions\/1861"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/canis-conseil.fr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1857"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/canis-conseil.fr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1857"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/canis-conseil.fr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1857"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}